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Marius Laurinavicius

Vilnius University, International Relatiosn and Political Science, Alumnus

Vilnius University, International Relatiosn and Political Science, Alumnus |

114 Followers | 5 Following | 1 Co-author | —Total Views

Papers

The Many Faces of Putinism

What does a prominent Russian filmmaker’s apparent about-face —from Kremlin critic to a willing a... more What does a prominent Russian filmmaker’s apparent about-face —from Kremlin critic to a willing agent of Putin’s propaganda machine—tell us about the very nature of the Russian regime?
Actually, the faces of Putinism are legion, and at first glance, one might be tempted to draw sharp distinctions between them when in fact more unites them than divides them. In order to understand whom we are really dealing with when
we deal with the Russian regime, we need to learn to recognize and publicly name them. And we must avoid the lulling illusion that we might be able to count on some of them as driving forces for regime change.

Putin's New Deception: A Call for Anti-Terror Coalition

Russia now is building up its strategy of seeming reconciliation with the West on the positive ro... more Russia now is building up its strategy of seeming reconciliation with the West on the positive role it played in achieving the Iran nuclear deal. But no one should be fooled by Russia’s intentions. Since starting the war in Ukraine, Russia is trying to build as many anti-Western axes in the world as it can and to strengthen them as much as it can as well.
The Russia-China axis and Russia-Iran-Syria axis should be mentioned first, and all the steps Russia has recently taken should be considered from this perspective, including the Iran deal, courting the region by an anti-terrorism coalition proposal and other initiatives as well. Russia is serious about regaining influence in the Middle East. And there should be no doubt it is going to do that at the expense of the influence of the United States and the West as a whole, not as part of building a new platform of cooperation.

Russia's Dangerous Campaign in the Baltics

Public questioning of Baltic independence is part of a larger campaign already underway in Russia... more Public questioning of Baltic independence is part of a larger campaign already underway in Russia to convince society and leadership that an attack against these NATO members is a reasonable, justified and simply inevitable move. This campaign began this April when the Russian political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko published an article entitled Redemptive Ransom." Ishchenko argued that the "preventive occupation of the Baltic states" is an inevitable outcome and vital interest of the Kremlin.

I anticipated that we would witness something similar to this campaign in my response to Ishchenko’s argument that highlighted the importance and danger of the article at the time.

But in order to understand the fact that Russian provocation to “preventively occupy” the Baltic states and the questioning of their independence are interrelated one should look into whose ideas are represented in both cases.

Putin's Russia. The dangerous illusion of independent and western oligarchs

I decided to dedicate one more essay in the "Putin's Russia" series to Russian oligarchs because ... more I decided to dedicate one more essay in the "Putin's Russia" series to Russian oligarchs because of one piece of news that attracted much less attention internationally than it warranted: the former foreign minister of Sweden and one of the fiercest critics of President Valdimir Putin, Carl Bildt, accepted a consulting job at LetterOne, a Luxembourg-based company set up and run by Russian oligarchs.

Even after he retired from government posts, Bildt continued to be a rallying voice in the West for countering threats of the Putin regime. He is also a member of Ukraine's International Reform Council, therefore his decision to consult one of Russia's wealthiest oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and his colleagues at Alfa Group naturally begs a question that was perhaps best summed up in a tweet by Lithuanian foreign policy observer VykintasPugačiauskas: "Is Carl Bildt following in Schroeder's footsteps?"

There was hardly any serious discussion about this in the international arena. Still, two of the most reputable Russia experts - whom I respect very much - Edward Lucas and Anders Aslund came to Bildt'sdefence. Reacting to comparisons between Bildt and the former chancellor of Germany who accepted a job in the management of Gazprom, Lucas tweeted: "difference -- Gazprom is epitome of Putinist business. Alfa is closest Russia has to normal one." Aslund put it even more forcefully: "Alfa has moved out of Russia & stayed out of politics. In what way has Carl Bildt done anything wrong?"

Is Russia Winning the Information War in Lithuania?

Information war waged by Russia against Europe exceeds classical terms of information war. In a c... more Information war waged by Russia against Europe exceeds classical terms of information war. In a classical sense, Lithuania is not losing an information war to Russia. On the contrary, Russia is the one losing. In the classical sense, the aim of any information war is to weaken the society of one’s adversary and prepare it for non-resistance in case of real aggression. That definitely is not the case in Lithuania, where society is now consolidated against the threat of potential Russian aggression as never before. But this is only one part of the picture. Thinking in Western terms when it comes to Russia could be misleading. And information war is a Western term, which is not always applicable to Kremlin actions. Instead of a focus on classical information war, we should pay more attention to the well-known tool of the KGB of the Soviet era called “active measures.”

Baltic Security: Russia’s Threats, NATO’s Capabilities and the “Belarus Factor”

by Maksym Khylko and Marius Laurinavicius

Experts from Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine commented on the current issues of th... more Experts from Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine commented on the current issues of the Baltic states security, including the threats of Russia’s hybrid and conventional aggression, NATO's capabilities to secure the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of the Baltic states, and possible role of the “Belarus factor”, given its close military cooperation with Russia.

Why Russia’s threat to Baltic states is so real

It is obvious that in the event of an attack on Baltic States, Russia risks being drawn into a d... more

Putin’s Russia: What did Nemtsov’s assassination reveal about the current regime?

Assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was a shocking wake-up call for many all over th... more Assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was a shocking wake-up call for many all over the globe. Circumstances were more than eloquent – bullets hit Nemtsov right in front of Kremlin and merely one day before the planned protest march. Putin’s Russia: What did Nemtsov’s assassination reveal about the current regime?
Naturally, all Western eyes turned to Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. However, opinions divided immediately – some admitted that this shooting was totally useless for Putin, so it’s not worth looking for the roots of crime in Kremlin; other said that it was impossible to happen without Putin standing behind it.
However, even those who do not directly point their fingers at Putin still admit (reasonably enough) that he is responsible to a certain extent – mainly for creating an atmosphere where dissenters are persecuted, and it was especially escalated by Putin’s regime from the beginning of the war in Ukraine. These opinions do not change much after announcing that the suspects of Nemtsov’s murder have been arrested.
So we have none other than Putin to blame. But isn’t it a simplification of the situation? Does it actually tell anything not only about Nemtsov’s assassination but also about the current Russia in general?

Do traces of KGB, FSB and GRU lead to Islamic State?

This time I decided to draw attention to a significant role (which was a surprise for many expert... more This time I decided
to draw attention to a
significant role (which was a surprise for many
experts) of Chechen terrorists in a battle of
Islamic state that has become a main threat to
the West. Based on this role, it is not only
possible, but vital to examine the potential li
nks
between the Islamic state and Russian secret
services.

Why it is worth to reconsider links between Kremlin and international terrorism

n this case I decided to examine not the current Russian government structure , the interrelation... more n this case I decided to
examine not the current
Russian government
structure
, the interrelation of various clans and
th
eir influence to processes in Russia and
worldwide, but rather focus on why Russia can
now be reasonably called a
country that
sponsors terrorism
2
.
I will also discuss the very
suspicious links between the current regime and
international terrorism, and the historical role of
Soviet Union’s KGB (the foundation of Putin’s
regime) in developing an international terrorism
network.

The Many Faces of Putinism

What does a prominent Russian filmmaker’s apparent about-face —from Kremlin critic to a willing a... more What does a prominent Russian filmmaker’s apparent about-face —from Kremlin critic to a willing agent of Putin’s propaganda machine—tell us about the very nature of the Russian regime?
Actually, the faces of Putinism are legion, and at first glance, one might be tempted to draw sharp distinctions between them when in fact more unites them than divides them. In order to understand whom we are really dealing with when
we deal with the Russian regime, we need to learn to recognize and publicly name them. And we must avoid the lulling illusion that we might be able to count on some of them as driving forces for regime change.

Putin's New Deception: A Call for Anti-Terror Coalition

Russia now is building up its strategy of seeming reconciliation with the West on the positive ro... more Russia now is building up its strategy of seeming reconciliation with the West on the positive role it played in achieving the Iran nuclear deal. But no one should be fooled by Russia’s intentions. Since starting the war in Ukraine, Russia is trying to build as many anti-Western axes in the world as it can and to strengthen them as much as it can as well.
The Russia-China axis and Russia-Iran-Syria axis should be mentioned first, and all the steps Russia has recently taken should be considered from this perspective, including the Iran deal, courting the region by an anti-terrorism coalition proposal and other initiatives as well. Russia is serious about regaining influence in the Middle East. And there should be no doubt it is going to do that at the expense of the influence of the United States and the West as a whole, not as part of building a new platform of cooperation.

Russia's Dangerous Campaign in the Baltics

Public questioning of Baltic independence is part of a larger campaign already underway in Russia... more Public questioning of Baltic independence is part of a larger campaign already underway in Russia to convince society and leadership that an attack against these NATO members is a reasonable, justified and simply inevitable move. This campaign began this April when the Russian political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko published an article entitled Redemptive Ransom." Ishchenko argued that the "preventive occupation of the Baltic states" is an inevitable outcome and vital interest of the Kremlin.

I anticipated that we would witness something similar to this campaign in my response to Ishchenko’s argument that highlighted the importance and danger of the article at the time.

But in order to understand the fact that Russian provocation to “preventively occupy” the Baltic states and the questioning of their independence are interrelated one should look into whose ideas are represented in both cases.

Putin's Russia. The dangerous illusion of independent and western oligarchs

I decided to dedicate one more essay in the "Putin's Russia" series to Russian oligarchs because ... more I decided to dedicate one more essay in the "Putin's Russia" series to Russian oligarchs because of one piece of news that attracted much less attention internationally than it warranted: the former foreign minister of Sweden and one of the fiercest critics of President Valdimir Putin, Carl Bildt, accepted a consulting job at LetterOne, a Luxembourg-based company set up and run by Russian oligarchs.

Even after he retired from government posts, Bildt continued to be a rallying voice in the West for countering threats of the Putin regime. He is also a member of Ukraine's International Reform Council, therefore his decision to consult one of Russia's wealthiest oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and his colleagues at Alfa Group naturally begs a question that was perhaps best summed up in a tweet by Lithuanian foreign policy observer VykintasPugačiauskas: "Is Carl Bildt following in Schroeder's footsteps?"

There was hardly any serious discussion about this in the international arena. Still, two of the most reputable Russia experts - whom I respect very much - Edward Lucas and Anders Aslund came to Bildt'sdefence. Reacting to comparisons between Bildt and the former chancellor of Germany who accepted a job in the management of Gazprom, Lucas tweeted: "difference -- Gazprom is epitome of Putinist business. Alfa is closest Russia has to normal one." Aslund put it even more forcefully: "Alfa has moved out of Russia & stayed out of politics. In what way has Carl Bildt done anything wrong?"

Is Russia Winning the Information War in Lithuania?

Information war waged by Russia against Europe exceeds classical terms of information war. In a c... more Information war waged by Russia against Europe exceeds classical terms of information war. In a classical sense, Lithuania is not losing an information war to Russia. On the contrary, Russia is the one losing. In the classical sense, the aim of any information war is to weaken the society of one’s adversary and prepare it for non-resistance in case of real aggression. That definitely is not the case in Lithuania, where society is now consolidated against the threat of potential Russian aggression as never before. But this is only one part of the picture. Thinking in Western terms when it comes to Russia could be misleading. And information war is a Western term, which is not always applicable to Kremlin actions. Instead of a focus on classical information war, we should pay more attention to the well-known tool of the KGB of the Soviet era called “active measures.”

Baltic Security: Russia’s Threats, NATO’s Capabilities and the “Belarus Factor”

by Maksym Khylko and Marius Laurinavicius

Experts from Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine commented on the current issues of th... more Experts from Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine commented on the current issues of the Baltic states security, including the threats of Russia’s hybrid and conventional aggression, NATO's capabilities to secure the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of the Baltic states, and possible role of the “Belarus factor”, given its close military cooperation with Russia.

Why Russia’s threat to Baltic states is so real

It is obvious that in the event of an attack on Baltic States, Russia risks being drawn into a d... more

Putin’s Russia: What did Nemtsov’s assassination reveal about the current regime?

Assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was a shocking wake-up call for many all over th... more Assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was a shocking wake-up call for many all over the globe. Circumstances were more than eloquent – bullets hit Nemtsov right in front of Kremlin and merely one day before the planned protest march. Putin’s Russia: What did Nemtsov’s assassination reveal about the current regime?
Naturally, all Western eyes turned to Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. However, opinions divided immediately – some admitted that this shooting was totally useless for Putin, so it’s not worth looking for the roots of crime in Kremlin; other said that it was impossible to happen without Putin standing behind it.
However, even those who do not directly point their fingers at Putin still admit (reasonably enough) that he is responsible to a certain extent – mainly for creating an atmosphere where dissenters are persecuted, and it was especially escalated by Putin’s regime from the beginning of the war in Ukraine. These opinions do not change much after announcing that the suspects of Nemtsov’s murder have been arrested.
So we have none other than Putin to blame. But isn’t it a simplification of the situation? Does it actually tell anything not only about Nemtsov’s assassination but also about the current Russia in general?

Do traces of KGB, FSB and GRU lead to Islamic State?

This time I decided to draw attention to a significant role (which was a surprise for many expert... more This time I decided
to draw attention to a
significant role (which was a surprise for many
experts) of Chechen terrorists in a battle of
Islamic state that has become a main threat to
the West. Based on this role, it is not only
possible, but vital to examine the potential li
nks
between the Islamic state and Russian secret
services.

Why it is worth to reconsider links between Kremlin and international terrorism

n this case I decided to examine not the current Russian government structure , the interrelation... more n this case I decided to
examine not the current
Russian government
structure
, the interrelation of various clans and
th
eir influence to processes in Russia and
worldwide, but rather focus on why Russia can
now be reasonably called a
country that
sponsors terrorism
2
.
I will also discuss the very
suspicious links between the current regime and
international terrorism, and the historical role of
Soviet Union’s KGB (the foundation of Putin’s
regime) in developing an international terrorism
network.